A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A METEOROLOGIST
Dr. Xenia Kisselincheva
“In the accuracy of weather forecasts, the new technologies are only complementary to the power of the human mind”
I knew her first from the TV screen, standing in front of the ever-changing synoptic map, reminding me of my geography teacher. A smile twinkled in her eyes, her voice undulated with a persuasive pitch, telling us about cyclones and anti-cyclones, raging at more than 5000 meters up in the atmosphere. “What will be, will be...” as the song goes. Isn’t the weather only one of the many factors well beyond our control, humbling us into respecting Mother Nature’s laws? Weather and climate have had such a tremendous impact on the specific character of cultures and civilizations, on their rise and fall, on their unique sensibility and outlook.
This time I met her, on a quiet and warm September evening, at her office at the Institute of Meteorology
“How do the new technologies affect the accuracy of weathercasting?” I was eager to ask, remembering an old joke about synopticians, suggesting that you should carry an umbrella, if they predict clear skies and sunshine. Ljuba liked the joke and did not seem to take it as a professional offense, she lit a “Victory” cigarette and explained to me in her emphatic manner: “The new technologies - computer networks, radars and satellites made a revolution in our field, like in many other fields, but they are only complementary to the human mind.” In the final analysis, the reading and the interpretation of the multiple data has to be done by the synoptician. She opened a green tin box and tipped some Georgian tea into the pot with hot water, then pushed it aside to let it brew for a while. “This tea was given to us by a Russian colleague of ours. She used to come on business trips in the old days at least twice a year. This time, she came as an interpreter for some businessmen.” Ljuba went on to say that Nadia learnt how to speak Bulgarian quite well. She loved everything here - the monasteries, the scenery, the food and ,most of all, her colleagues at the Institute. Ljuba, in her turn, was a lover of the Russian language and she preferred to read Tolstoy and Turgenev in the original. She was thrilled when Anton, her fifteen year old son, came home one day and announced that he would take Russian as a second foreign language. Maybe, one day, he would like to pick up some of her favorite volumes off the shelf? Actually, it all goes back in time.... when Ljuba was at high school, she was “the pride” of her literature teacher, who secretly hoped her brilliant student would apply at the Philology Department. But, instead, Ljuba entered the Physics Department - she was so fascinated with the unfathomable horizons,opening up with the epoch-making discoveries of the first half of the 20th century. To penetrate into the workings of invisible micro-particles, the ultimate building blocks of the universe, where perhaps its mysteries are locked ...
By the third year, she had changed her mind -she gave up nuclear physics for geophysics and meteorology. After her graduation, she immediately got a job at the Institute, and she had been working here ever since. In spite of “all turns and twists of fortune”, she thinks she has been quite lucky in two ways - her extended family and her work. She loves to speak of her beloved ones. To begin with, on her mother’s side, her grandfather was a devout Evangelical pastor who had been persecuted and tortured as a “Western spy”. He escaped imprisonment only thanks to his blindness-when he used a flashlight to grope his way, he was accused of giving “secret signs” to his conspirers! But he never gave up his faith and passed it on to his daughter, Ljuba’s mother. Last Saturday, the family had a double celebration - the parents’ golden anniversary and Ljuba’s sister’s birthday. They all got round the dining room table among the lavish greenery of Ljuba’s private “botanical garden” - the parents, their three “children” with their spouses, all the grandchildren and pets. “My parents got married very young, against the will of their parents, and they are still remembered as the Romeo and Juliet of Assenovgrad.” It is a romantic town at the foot of the Rhodopa mountain, nearby the Bachkovo monastery, where they were secretly wedded. We were suddenly interrupted by the flashing on the computer screens-new data were flooding in, coming from all points of the world, mainly from the regional centers in Bracknell , England , Offenbach , Germany , Quebeck in the US Balkan mountains where the Bulgarian revival spirit sparkled at its brightest in the 19th century, where crafts and trade flourished, where the rose and the lavender grew rank due to an unique blend of soil and climate. I was tempted to inquire what Ljuba thought about the dramatic effect of global warming on climate, in the last decade or two. Ljuba said climatology was a separate discipline in itself. It took 150-200 years of observation to draw more definite conclusions. But, as a layman, I am prone to believe that the towering number of natural disasters, happening worldwide - draughts, floods and earthquakes in the 90’s strikes an alarming bell in one’s mind - haven’t human beings gone too far in their interference with natural order? Ljuba recently watched on a large screen in the next room the stupifying sight of hurricane Floyd, evolving over the Bahamas , storming past Florida , dashing to North and South Carolina
How about the presentation of the weather forecast on our TV? Ljuba is reluctant to comment on this, since “not many good things could be said.” It is not enough to give the weather forecast for the next day or two, it is important to explain what the underlying reasons, the map should be seen more clearly by the spectators to better follow the dynamics of the various factors. Also, information should be given not just for the following day, but for the next couple of days. All these things were taken into consideration at the time Ljuba was doing the weather forecast news on TV. Unlike countries like Poland or the Czech republic
How about the research department to the Institute of Meteorology
“Naturally, the research team has been adapting to the new situation, they are making only computer programs demanded on the market. But, there are certain projects which are of wider practical value, taking advantage of the use of computers and mathematical modelling. For instance, there is one project, dealing with the Black sea motion. “When the cold season sets in, it is essential to get a timely warning, if a cold front is advancing from the north-east. It usually implies adverse weather conditions - heavy snow, cable and conductors’ damage, blockage of mountain passes or roads and a dangerously rough sea. There are a lot of prevention measures to be taken to avoid serious disruptions and losses.” Something like a recurring Y2K problem, I thought, but on a minor scale, humbling us into our uneven battle with the elements...
Ljuba admits that she finds it harder to be very optimistic in today’s confused world but her unfailing passion for reading books is a secret source of spiritual strength she taps on, whenever she can. At home, when everybody has gone to bed, on the bus to the Institute, during the breaks when she is on night shift. She is a John Steinbeck woman, she loves his delicate sense of humor and his concern with moral subtleties. She loves to find in his writings some of the principles and values she has adopted from her deeply religious mother. Though Ljuba has not adopted the Evangelical faith in the strict sense, she loves to go to church from time to time - she loves to hear the hymns, to meet the young members of the congregation, to hear an interpretation of some Biblical text. It is a way to reaffirm her faith in the ultimate goodness and wisdom of mankind which will eventually prevail in the new millenium...
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